Global Overview#
The GEM Global Risk Model provides a comprehensive earthquake risk assessment. The model presents the geographic distribution of potential impacts including economic losses, fatalities, damaged buildings, and affected populations across residential, commercial, and industrial building sectors.
215 countries and territories covered
12 regional mosaics for detailed analysis
Multi-scale assessment from global to local
Standardized methodologies across all regions
Hazard Models: Seismic ground motion assessment
Exposure Models: Building stock and population distribution
Vulnerability Models: Damage and loss estimation
Risk Assessment: Integrated impact quantification
Model Scope and Limitations#
The current model focuses on ground shaking effects from earthquakes and provides the foundation for multi-hazard risk assessment. The model does not currently include:
Secondary earthquake effects (tsunamis, liquefaction, landslides)
Fire following earthquakes
Other natural hazards (floods, cyclones, etc.)
Future model versions will expand to include additional hazard types and secondary effects.
Key Model Applications#
Comparative risk studies
Methodology development
Vulnerability research
Loss model validation
National risk assessments
Building code development
Insurance applications
Disaster preparedness planning
Emergency response planning
Post-disaster impact estimation
Risk communication
Investment prioritization
Additional Resources#
For detailed methodology and regional information:
Methodology Overview - Complete technical documentation
Regional Models - Country and territory specific assessments
The Global Exposure Model#
The v2025.0.0 release for the Global Exposure Model is now available! 🥳 🚀
Modeled projections based on data from 215 countries
👥 Population and Building classes
📍 53% of the world population (>4.1 billion people) lives in areas exposed to moderate to high levels of seismic hazard (PGA > 0.10g).
🏠 Half of the buildings in the world are made of unreinforced masonry (32%) or wood (21%).
🇮🇳 India is the country that concentrates the largest number of buiuldings (233 million)
💰 Economic value of Buildings
🔢 $300 trillion is the estimated total replacement cost of buildings (residential, commercial and industrial) worldwide, based on our latest risk models.
🇺🇸 The United States of America concentrates the largest replacement cost, with $18 trillion.
🌎 90% of the total replacement cost is concentrated in three regions, North America, East Asia, and Europe.
🏠 Buildings Vulnerability
🚶♂️ More than half of the population in the world lives in buildings with no seismic provisions (vulnerable to earthquakes).
🔨 <15% of the buildings follow modern building codes with moderate to high ductility.
🗺️ Something to add here.
📉 Countries with the highest exposure At the global scale, 20 countries concentrate large fractions of both buildings and replacement cost (70% of the total number of buildings and 85% of the total replacement cost):
Country |
Buildings (Million) |
Replacement cost (Trillion USD) |
|---|---|---|
🇮🇳 India |
232.5 |
3.0 |
🇨🇳 China |
218.0 |
46.2 |
🇺🇸 United States |
115.6 |
80.1 |
🇧🇷 Brazil |
61.1 |
5.3 |
🇮🇩 Indonesia |
45.6 |
2.3 |
🇯🇵 Japan |
35.2 |
22.5 |
🇲🇽 Mexico |
33.9 |
4.9 |
🇩🇪 Germany |
19.9 |
12.1 |
🇷🇺 Russia |
18.7 |
5.2 |
🇬🇧 United Kingdom |
15.5 |
6.3 |
📢 Why This Matters
These insights come from GEM’s state-of-the-art exposure model, helping governments, insurers, and disaster response teams anticipate and mitigate earthquake impacts. The most vulnerable communities are often the hardest hit. Strengthening earthquake resilience, especially in developing regions, is essential to saving lives and protecting livelihoods.
Global maps#
Buildings exposed to different levels of seismic hazard#
Building counts#
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Predominant material of construction#
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Global summaries#
Continent summaries#
GEM_Region summaries#
Countribution from top 20 countries#
Buildings and Cost per capita and per area#
🚀 Model versions#
Each version of the model that is released can be accessed by changing from the main branch to the tag of a given version.
The main branch could contain the work-in-progress of the next version of the model.
Version |
Release Notes |
|---|---|
See summary of changes in Whats new. |
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Exposure was spatially disaggregated for many countries. Revised taxonomy map. |
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Minor update relative to |
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The model has been updated to reflect cost updates to 2021 figures |
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Original version within the larger 2018 Global Exposure Model release. |
The Global Risk Model#
The v2023.0.0 release for the Global Risk Model is now available! 🥳 🚀
Explanation of profile content#
The GEM Foundation has produced a collection of Country/Territory Seismic Risk Profiles that summarize key metrics of seismic risk, allowing stakeholders in risk management to get an overview of the risk in a region at-a-glance. Each profile presents the following relevant information:
Social indicators, which provide context to the region in question
Risk indicators, detailing an occupancy breakdown of exposed value and losses
A list of the major earthquakes that have impacted the region
Loss per region, providing a breakdown of average annual losses per administrative level 1
Building classes, depicting the major construction materials used in the region
Loss curves, which provide expected losses per different return periods
Maps depicting the geographical distribution of hazard, exposure, and losses
The risk values presented are the results of an event-based risk analysis, where 100,000 years of earthquakes are simulated. Three lines of business are considered: residential, commercial, and industrial. Therefore, the value or earthquake losses from damage to other building occupancies (e.g., schools, healthcare) and infrastructure are not included.