================== Consequence Models ================== Introduction ------------ Consequence models translate structural damage states into economic losses and other impact metrics. These models are essential for converting fragility analysis results into actionable risk metrics for decision-making. Damage-to-Loss Ratios --------------------- Damage-to-loss ratios map each damage state to an expected loss expressed as a fraction of a building's replacement cost. The ratios used in this model are: .. list-table:: Structural Damage-to-Loss Ratios :header-rows: 1 :widths: 25 25 50 * - Damage State - Mean Ratio - Description * - DS1 (Slight) - 0.05 - Minor cosmetic repairs * - DS2 (Moderate) - 0.15 - Moderate structural repairs * - DS3 (Extensive) - 0.60 - Major structural repairs * - DS4 (Complete) - 1.00 - Full replacement Sources and Derivation ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The damage-to-loss ratios are derived from: **Empirical Data** Post-earthquake damage and repair cost surveys (Di Pasquale et al. 2005; Bal et al. 2008) **Analytical Procedures** Component-based loss estimation methodologies (Martins et al. 2016; Aljawhari et al. 2023) Loss Categories --------------- Structural Losses ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Losses associated with damage to the building's lateral load-resisting system and gravity load-carrying elements. Non-Structural Loss Functions (SLFs) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Storey Loss Functions (SLFs) relate engineering demand parameters (EDPs) directly to loss ratios for non-structural components. Two types of SLFs are provided: * **Drift-sensitive SLFs**: For components sensitive to interstorey drift (partitions, facades, stairs) * **Acceleration-sensitive SLFs**: For components sensitive to floor acceleration (ceilings, MEP systems) The SLFs are available for different regions, building materials, component categories, and occupancy types. **Interactive SLF Viewer** .. raw:: html
Embodied Carbon Loss Functions ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Carbon SLFs express embodied carbon loss (kg CO₂-eq per unit floor area) as a function of EDP, for structural and non-structural components. They follow the same region × material × component × occupancy structure as the non-structural SLFs above. **Interactive Carbon SLF Viewer** .. raw:: html
Contents Losses ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Losses from damage to building contents including furniture, fixtures, equipment, machinery, personal belongings (residential), and inventory (commercial/industrial). Casualty Consequence Models --------------------------- Casualty models estimate fatalities and injuries based on building damage and collapse. The consequence ratios below represent the expected proportion of building occupants affected at each damage state. **Fatalities Consequence Ratios** .. raw:: html

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**Injuries Consequence Ratios** .. raw:: html

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**Affected Population** .. raw:: html

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**Displaced Population** .. raw:: html

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Regional Variations ------------------- Consequence models may vary by region due to: * **Construction costs**: Labour and material costs differ globally * **Repair practices**: Different repair approaches for similar damage * **Economic factors**: Currency, inflation, and market conditions * **Building standards**: Code requirements for repairs/retrofits Uncertainty Quantification -------------------------- Uncertainty in damage-to-loss ratios is captured through: **Within-Damage-State Variability** Coefficient of variation for loss ratio given each damage state **Between-Building Variability** Differences in repair costs for buildings of the same class The uncertainty is propagated through the vulnerability calculation using the formulations described in the Vulnerability Models section. References ---------- * Di Pasquale G. et al. (2005). New developments in seismic risk assessment in Italy. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. * Bal I.E. et al. (2008). Detailed assessment of structural characteristics of Turkish RC building stock for loss assessment models. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. * Martins L. et al. (2016). Development and assessment of damage-to-loss models for moment-frame reinforced concrete buildings. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics. * Aljawhari K. et al. (2023). Simulation-based consequence models of seismic direct loss and repair time for archetype reinforced concrete frames. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. * FEMA (2012). Next-Generation Methodology for Seismic Performance Assessment of Buildings (FEMA P-58). Washington, D.C.